Consumer sentiment is improving in Romania says GfK

Consumer sentiment is improving in many European Union countries, including Romania, for the first time since the financial and economic crisis and despite the uncertainty created by the Greek crisis, reveals the GfK Consumer Climate Europe survey.

In almost all of the 11 monitored countries, the recession appears to have bottomed out. Economic expectations have risen in the second quarter, or at least remained steady at levels recorded in March, reads the report. Romania has been on a steep upward trend for the past 12 months: the indicator has climbed from its level of -71 points in June 2010 to a current -26.2 points. Despite the improvement, Romania still remains among the countries with the lowest score. In Italy the indicator reaches -26 points, in Austria -48 points and the last position is taken by Greece with -55 points. The Germans are the most confident with 55 points. The European average is -4 points.

“The recession in Europe appears to have bottomed out, and the economy in most European countries is beginning to recover from the worst downturn since the Second World War. In many countries, the economic data have for the first time returned to a slight upward trend since the first quarter of this year,” reads the study. Not all is good news however, as many consumers are still unsettled and unconvinced that the upswing in their respective countries will be sustained.

Looking at the income expectations, the indicator rose in Germany (44.6 points), Spain (-4 points), Austria (-29), Romania (-24) and Poland (-27), and in some cases the increase was significant, according to GfK. At 44.6 points, Germany continues to record by far the highest value. The indicator has stabilized, albeit at a low level, in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, whereas in France it dropped to a record low of -41.9 points in June. The Greeks are the most pessimistic in view of their income expectations: the indicator value stood at -58.6 points in June. The EU average is -26 points.

The gradually improving economic situation and anticipation of a return to higher incomes are having an effect on willingness to buy. The trend appears to have bottomed out in most countries and the indicator is either climbing slightly or stabilizing. In this respect, Germany has recorded the highest value of 35.1 points, while Greece stands at the other end of the scale, with -41.8 points, closely followed by the UK, at -41.5 points. Romania stands at -29 points. The EU average is -17.

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In many of the countries monitored in the survey, consumers’ price expectations have passed their peak and dropped in the second quarter. Romania has the highest level (15 points) while Italy is recorded the lowest level (-18.4 points). Although the indicator is still very high in France, at 32 points, the situation in the country has eased considerably: in April, the indicator still stood at 49 points. In Austria too, price expectations are at a high level, with 30.6 points. The indicator has risen in the UK, the Czech Republic and Greece. The EU average is 7 points.

The GfK Consumer Climate Europe survey for the second quarter of 2011 provides an overview of the development of economic, price and income expectations and willingness to buy among consumers in Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain and the UK. These 11 countries account for around 80 percent of the total population of the 27 EU member states.

Simona Bazavan