Romania’s economic growth expectations for 2012 under pressure

The IMF projects a positive outlook of the Romanian economy in 2012, according to the second review that an IMF team took following recent discussion with the Romanian authorities.

The economic growth for this year will reach 1.5 percent, initially led by exports, but with domestic demand picking up in the second half of this year. This is attributable to a good agricultural output and a recovery in the labor market.

The initial growth rate of 3.5 – 4 percent will be slashed, according to Jeffrey Franks, head of the Romanian IMF mission. Franks declared for Mediafax newswire that Romania will register a 2 percent increase, as the risk of contagion from EU markets becomes more prominent.

Wolfgang Schoiswohl, Vice-President of Corporate Banking at BCR is also expecting the Romanian economy to grow by 2 to 3 percent of GDP, but the international context may downgrade this rate.

Last week, Vladimir Kalinov, vice-president for the retail division of Raiffeisen Bank, told BR that Romania’s economic growth will pass the 1 percent threshold next year, according to the latest forecast.

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Cristian Nacu, IFC: I would say that this year the watchword was sustainability

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Cristian Nacu, partner of Enterprise Investors, with significant investments in Macon Deva, Siveco and Profi, believes that the Romanian economy is fully dependant on the international context, as exports were the main growth engine. However, Nacu praised Romania’s fiscal reforms that were implemented with “a lot of force and courage”.

“Entrepreneurship is the solution for the growth in the medium and long term. We have to encourage small entrepreneurs”, Nacu told BR this week, when the 5th edition of “Champions in Business”, a competition awarding the most dynamic entrepreneurs in Romania, was launched.

Ovidiu Posirca