Coface has kept unchanged the “B” sovereign rating for Romania, the lowest in Europe. Together with Bulgaria, Romania has had this rating since June 2009. The rating agency estimates a 1.5 percent economic decline for 2010 while the GDP is expected to return on growth only in the second half of 2011, according to Ciprian Ionescu, Coface country cluster manager for Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia.
Romania’s macroeconomic stability largely depends on the government’s commitment to manage the effects of the recession through effective austerity measures as household consumption and consumer confidence will remain low, according to Ionescu. On a short term, growth is most likely to be generated by exports and an increase in industrial production.
Simona Bazavan