Analysts: Romania’s GDP to slow down during the next decade due to depopulation

Sorin Melenciuc 30/08/2018 | 11:11

Romania’s population has reached a 50-year low at the beginning of this year, of 19.5 million, due to negative natural increase and large migration, and this trend will have a large impact on economic growth during the next decade by mitigating potential GDP growth rates, Banca Transilvania’s analysts said in a research note released on Thursday.

Romania’s population declined by 120,700 inhabitants in 2017 compared to the previous year, due to demographic decline and emigration, according to official data.

On January 1, 2018, the resident population in Romania totaled 19.52 million people, compared with 19.64 million one year earlier. This means that the Eastern European country lost 0.6 percent of its population, or the equivalent of the population of a county capital city like Suceava, in just 12 months.

The main cause of this decrease is the negative natural increase, the number of deaths exceeding the number of births by 71,125.

Also, the migration of Romanians to wealthier Western European countries added other 53,381 inhabitants to the negative population balance last year.

Economists warn this trend is affecting the economic growth, as many of the Romanians fleeing their country are highly educated people.

“These developments, together with the aging phenomenon (the share of the population aged over 65 increased from 17.8 percent in 2017 to 18.2 percent in 2018) will adversely affect the potential GDP dynamics over the next decade (downward trend to 3% y/y),” Banca Transilvania analysts said.

Around 3.4 million Romanians have gone abroad between 2007 and 2015 to escape poverty and corruption in their country, according to a recent UN International Migration Report.

BR Magazine | Latest Issue

Download PDF or read online: May (I) 2023 Issue | Business Review Magazine

The May (I) 2023 issue of Business Review Magazine is now available in digital format, featuring the main cover story titled “MedLife BVB performance highlights potential of Romania’s emerging
Sorin Melenciuc | 17/05/2023 | 15:38

    You will receive a download link for the latest issue of Business Review Magazine in PDF format, based on the completion of the form below.

    I agree with the Privacy policy of

    I agree with the storage and handling of my data by

    Advertisement Advertisement
    Close ×

    We use cookies for keeping our website reliable and secure, personalising content and ads, providing social media features and to analyse how our website is used.

    Accept & continue