The local economy may gain at least 2 percent of GDP this year, after posting an annualized growth rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter, says Claudiu Cazacu, chief analyst at XTB Romania, a brokerage firm.
The agricultural output, which has an important role in Romania’s GDP, will sustain this year’s growth, if the production is good, reckons Cazacu in an analysis. He mentioned the labor market reforms and changes in the production sector as internal measures that influence the economy on the long term.
“The increase of demand and of domestic consumption will continue to support the recovery of the local economy in 2013, while the investment level is expected to increase, if the political and macro-economic stability would continue this year,” noted Cazacu.
Cazacu added that cutting interest rates on loans would spur investments, although banks are still reluctant to act on this.
Romania’s exports are also mentioned as a growth driver, if the Euro zone economies – the main trading partner- return in the green.
The European Commission forecasts a 0.4 percent fall in the Euro zone’s output this year, continuing a negative trend that started at the end of 2011. The Euro zone bloc has shrunk for six consecutive quarters.
The European Commission and the IMF forecasts the local economy will grow by 1.6 percent of GDP, while the EBRD estimates an expansion of at least 1.4 percent.
XTB estimates a RON to EUR exchange rate in the 4.30 to 4.38 band in the next months.