Inflation stays negative but climbs 0.1 pct in October

Consumer prices went up by 0.28 percent in October over the previous month, while the annual inflation rate reached -1.6 percent, according to data from the National Institute for Statistics (INS). Though inflation stayed negative in October, it climbed 0.1 percent from September’s value.

Prices show a 1.35 increase over the end of the previous year.

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) revised on Tuesday its forecast for the annual inflation rate at -0.7 percent for the end of this year (down 0.4 percentage points from the August estimate), and at 1.1 percent for the end of next year (0.4 percent over the August estimates). The new estimates include the Fiscal Code amendments brought by the October emergency ordinance.

The largest increase was registered by food (up 0.5 percent), followed by services (0.27 percent) and non-food goods (0.13 percent).

In the food segment, the largest increase in prices was seen in vegetables and tinned vegetables (up 4.52 percent), with potatoes registering the highest rise. Sugar and confectioneries saw a 1.38 percent increase.

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The largest drop in prices was recorded in fruit and tinned fruit (down 2.01 percent), mainly due to a 4.64 percent drop in citrus and other exotic fruit.

Among non-food goods, heat energy prices registered the highest increase (1.51 percent), while fuels saw 0.79 percent decrease.

In services, a 1.39 percent increase was the highest registered, in “other services”, while drops of 0.03 percent were seen in bus subscriptions and phone services.

Compared to October 2014, 37.8 percent of goods and services saw a drop in prices, while 27.8 percent registered increases of more than 2.5 percent. Prices kept within a 0-2.5 percent increase range for 34.4 percent of goods and services.

The average price increase based on the CPI over the last 12 months (November 2014‐October 2015) as compared to the previous 12 months (November 2013‐October 2014) was ‐0.2 percent. The price increase based on the HICP was ‐0.1 percent.

Consumer prices, as measured by the HICP, decreased by 1.4 percent in October 2015, year on year.

Natalia Martian