CNP: 3.4 pct inflation in 2014

The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) reports that the rise in consumer prices will place the national inflation rate around the 2.5 percent multi-annual target announced by the National Bank of Romania (plus-minus a percentage point), according to the evolution of macroeconomic indicators for the 2014-2017 interval.

Therefore, in 2014 the inflation rate will be 3.4 percent, in 2015 – 2.5 percent, in 2016 – 2.3 percent and in 2017 – 2.2 percent. In the same time frame, the leu/euro exchange rate will be constant, hovering around the 4.4 RON/EUR value. CNP estimates a 4.45 RON/EUR rate in 2014, 4.4 in 2015 and 4.37 in 2017.

BNRi predicted year-end inflation will be 3.5 percent, compared with the November prediction of 3%, Governor Mugur Isarescu said on February 6.

“The main risk comes from the volatile external environment, which could affect the rate in both directions,” Isarescu argued.

Romania’s annual inflation rate in January was 1.2 percent, higher than the EU average of 0.9 percent, according to Eurostat data.

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Also, Romania and Estonia come in last in the EU in terms of the average price growth in general with an increase of 3.1 percent , 2.9 percent respectively, recorded between the months of January and December last year.