Retail trade should see moderate growth in the next three months, says INS report

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for Romania moderately increased in retail trade, while the manufacturing industry, constructions and services should remain stable, shows a survey conducted by the National Statistics Institute. The survey sample comprises of 2000 managers in the manufacturing sector, 1600 representatives of the construction industry, 2110 managers in retail trade and 2492 representatives of the services sector, assessing their expectations for the August-October period.

Manufacturing industry
Managers in this sector forecast a moderate growth of 3 percent in the order books. Employment expectations are stable, with a 1 percent decrease in the manufacturing sector.
The surveyed managers forecast a prominent growth of 20 percent  in the paper and beverage production. A 16 percent increase will be recorded for the manufacture of products from non-metal minerals, while the manufacturing of other transportation means are expected to increase by 14 percent.  Price trends are expected to grow moderately, by 19 percent, according to surveyed managers, in the next three months.

Construction industry
The construction business will record a 1 percent increase in the following three months and a moderate decrease of 3 percent in the order books. The surveyed managers estimate a 4 percent decrease in employment expectations. Prices for construction works are forecasted to increase by a moderate 10 percent.

Trade retail
In the trade sector, managers are expecting a 7 percent improvement in the business situation for the following three months. The total volume of sold goods is expected to gain 6 percent. Intentions of placing orders for suppliers of goods will increase by 4 percent. Employment expectations are expected to slightly improve by 2 percent. Company managers estimate that selling-prices will record a 14 percent increase in the next period.

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Services
The level of demands expected over the next 3 months will have a 5 percent decrease. Managers expect the level of employment in the next three months to drop by 7 percent. In addition, selling-price expectations will increase by 9 percent, according to surveyed managers.

In situation surveys, managers are not asked to provide specific numbers, but to assess the company and sector activity, using perception criteria. Answer options for the questions are general and don’t include specific data.

Ovidiu Posirca