BUSINESS OPTIMISM REVIEW | Leading economists’ and strategists’ take on the pandemic recession

The last installment of the Business Optimism Review by Miriam Constantin takes a look at the views of leading economists and strategists on the current recession.

By Miriam Constantin

According to Harvard specialists, we’ll have a recession which will end quickly before another economic boom

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A recent Harvard Business Review article explained how this pandemic’s effects are more likely to shape a V curve in the economy. The author explains: „this scenario describes the “classic” real economy shock, a displacement of output, but growth eventually rebounds. In this scenario, annual growth rates could fully absorb the shock. Though it may seem optimistic amid today’s gloom, we think it is plausible”. What does this mean? Well, it means economic growth will quickly retake its course, and recovery of the economy will be both faster and better. As the cited article puts it, the good news with all pandemics is that they eventually stop.

The airline market has fallen less than during SARS. Why is this recession better?

The V-shape scenario seems the more so plausible since it applied to the Spanish flu period as well (when more than 50 mil people died and 500 mil caught the bug).

Let’s take also other views. Scott Carson, strategy professor at Canada School of Business, one of the oldest top schools, argues:

„[…] these economic shocks are not permanent. They don’t represent structural changes to industries or a major rethinking of long-range corporate strategies. As with pandemics in the past, such as SARS in 2002-03, avian flu in 2006 and H1N1 in 2009, the duration is usually not much longer than a fiscal quarter, and the economic recovery is V-shaped—precipitously down, then rapidly back up. So, we should be confident that business activity will pick up and the economy will recover.”

Directly from the very business, Daniel Morris, investment specialist with BNP Paribas Asset Management entity says that, given the efforts of governments to contain the virus and to offset the economic impact, they (i.e. BNP Paribas) believe markets will turn higher reasonably soon.

Below, there are the assets that have not been affected by the pandemic. On the contrary.

Above you can see Harvard’s best and worst case scenarios explained. Things tend to be rather optimistic than not.

Though heartily put together by a lawyer and an EMBA student, it does not amount to a specific, legal, financial or tax advice.

It is meant only to present facts, legal provisions, opinions, and data from the optimistic point of view, the kind of details the author and her team wish you to be aware of during this time too.

Should you feel the need to know more or apply some of the ideas presented herein, you should head to your most trusted advisor for a deeper view and a safe travel towards opportunity.

Thank you!