BCR sees the Romanian economy grow by 2.9 percent in 2012

Romania is vulnerable to risk contagion from the Eurozone, due to exports and capital inflows, according to Agerpres newswire, that quotes BCR chief economist, Lucian Anghel. This statement was made during the launch of the bank’s quaterly report “Romania – The difficult road to stable growth”. For this year, BCR forecasts that the economy will gain 1.4 percent of GDP, while 2012 should see the economy increase by 2.9 percent.

Anghel considers Romania to be highly exposed to a downfall in demand from the Eurozone, and to possible disturbances of foreign capital inflows, while a drop in production prices will also affect manufacturers. The industry output is expected to reduce rapidly in the fourth trimester of this year.

In the fiscal consolidation domain, the government will pursue a reduction of arrears volumes for reaching the 3 percent budget deficit target agreed with the IMF for 2012. The BCR economist also takes into consideration a possible fiscal slide due to elections planned for 2012.

During the same event, Valentin Lazea, chief economist for the National Bank of Romania, stated that Romania should report an inflation rate of 3.5 percent at end-2012, further dropping below 3 percent in 2013-2014, on the grounds that the monetary policy of the central bank will receive a strong support from the fiscal and salary policies.

Ovidiu Posirca

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