Report: Romania will reach a real GDP growth of 4 pct in 2019

Romania will have a real GDP of RON 171 billion in 2019, 4 percent higher than in 2018 and a GDP per capita of USD 12,247, according to data provided by The Institute of International Finance (IIF).

Real GDP at the national level would be next year by about RON 7 billion higher than in 2018. At the same time, GDP per capita in 2019 will be USD 661 higher than in 2018.

IIF estimated also a 1 percent decline in government spending and a 4.5 percent drop in consumption. At the same time, imports of goods and services would register an increase of 4.9 percent and exports of 5 percent.

The share of GDP in agriculture would be 6.9 percent (down 0.1 percent as compared to 2018), industry will by 21.6 percent (down 0.4 percent), construction of 5.1 percent ( decrease of 0.1 percent) and the share of services would be 66.4 percent (increase of 1.4 percent).

IIF figures differ from those provided by the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis of the 2018 Summer Intermediate Prognosis. For the following year, it shows a share of GDP in agriculture of 4.1 percent, industry of 24.2 percent, of construction 6.1 percent and services of 56.7 percent.

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However, the forecasts of the Prognosis Commission also include net product taxes, which would have a weight of 8.9 percent of GDP. With regard to the number of employees, the International Finance Institute (IIF) estimates a figure of 4.9 million employees, with 100,000 more than in 2018 and by 500,000 more than in 2012.

As a consequence, the unemployment rate will be of only 2.5 percent – it is estimated at 3.5 percent for the current year. Last but not least, in 2019, Romania would have about 50,000 inhabitants less than in 2018, bringing the total population to 19.45 million people.

The Institute of International Finance is a global association of financial industry – commercial banks, investment funds, insurance companies, sovereign funds, central banks and development, with 450 members from 70 countries.