Romania’s economic forecast body revises downward GDP growth rate in 2018

The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP), the government’s economic forecast body, has revised downward its estimates regarding the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, but rose the forecast for GDP value due to higher inflation estimate.

The commission estimates Romania’s GDP will grow by 5.5 percent in 2018 (compared with 6.1 percent in the previous forecast, released in April), up to RON 945 billion (EUR 203.2 billion), or EUR 10,435 per inhabitant, from EUR 188 billion (EUR 9,596 /inhabitant) in 2017.

The previous report of CNSP, released in April, forecasted a GDP value of RON 930 billion in 2018.

But many analysts expect a slowdown of economic growth rate in 2018 to less than 5 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates for this year a growth rate of 5.1 percent in Romania in its latest World Economic Outlook report.

According to the government’s commission, the inflation will reach 3.5 percent at the end of the year (4.7 percent on annual average), compared with 3.2 percent (4.3 percent annual average) in the previous report.

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The commission maintained its EUR/RON exchange rate estimate, forecasting an exchange rate annual average of 4.65 in 2018.

The average net monthly earnings of Romanian employees will reach RON 2,650 (EUR 570) in 2018, up 11.7 percent in nominal terms (and 6.7 percent in real terms) compared with 2017, according to the commission.