Economic topics to be overlooked in presidential race

Although the Romanian economy is in technical recession and foreign direct investments (FDI) are losing steam, the upcoming presidential elections will not focus on economic issues, predict political consultants. Foreign investors, meanwhile, have suggested that their investment plans are not linked to the presidential race.

Fourteen candidates are vying for the top job, and their policies in the economic field vary from tax reductions to the development of key infrastructure projects. Others have made more ambitious promises such as the confiscation of the ill-gotten gains of wealthy miscreants and a law targeting debt collectors.

Nationalistic messages

“I don’t think we will see an ‘it’s the economy, stupid!’ kind of campaign. Why? Because, compared with the times of austerity, a few years ago, we are better off now; salaries and pensions (and a lot of the people who vote care about that) have been restored. Of course, some people are unhappy with measures like gas tax hikes or the pillar tax, but I do not see the economy as being key in this presidential election,” Radu Magdin, CEO of Smartlink Communications, a communication consultancy, told BR. “I see issues like rule of law, corruption, as well as candidate likability as key factors in November, particularly for the second round.”

Polls are showing that a large share of Romanians think the country is going in the wrong direction, with more than half saying they are worse off than last year from an economic perspective, says Radu Delicote, an image consultant at VIP Imagine, a communication consultancy.

Polls further indicate that less than 15 percent of respondents trust political officials and their decisions.

“We are observing a highly contradictory social context: on one hand, macroeconomically, Romania is functioning well (at least in statistics) but on the other hand the public perceives declining living standards,” Delicote told BR.

On top of this, some Romanians remain nostalgic for the former communist regime, headed by Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu. Polls say that over 60 percent of citizens believe that they lived better before 1989 (the year Ceausescu’s regime was toppled) or that things “were going in the right direction,” commented Delicote.

He added that the current presidential race is witnessing a surge in nationalistic messages.

Delicote suggested that the use of nationalistic topics is a double-edged sword, because it could convince more people to go out and vote, but at the same time could further widen the gap between undecided voters (the majority of the electorate) and the political class.

The second round of the presidential election in 2009, which was won by President Traian Basescu, had a 57 percent turnout.

What will win it?

Magdin of Smartlink Communications suggested these elections will be won on the credibility of the presidential messaging, because the campaign themes and slogans are not that impressive.

He said that Prime Minister Victor Ponta, the candidate of the center-left PSD-UNPR-PC coalition, will try to position himself in total opposition to President Traian Basescu, hoping this election will not become a test of his government.

Klaus Iohannis, the candidate backed by the right-wing ACL coalition, will try to define himself in opposition to Ponta and the PSD, hoping to reach the psychological 30 percent milestone in the first round.

“The rest of the candidates will need a miracle to get to the second round,” said Magdin.

Delicote of VIP Imagine described the November elections as atypical, first of all because there is a lot of fragmentation in the right-wing parties, with four candidates having thrown their hats into the ring.

Secondly, for the first time in Romania, there are two female candidates – Elena Udrea of the right wing PMP party and Monica Macovei, an independent.

He suggested victory will rest on either the formation of a strong coalition backing a candidate in the second round, the mobilization of an electorate that has been inactive since the 2004 presidential elections, or a surprise event that could dramatically change the face of the elections.

“I do not believe that the televised debates just before the elections will play a decisive role in the final vote, because this year’s campaign is being carried out on more media channels than in the past, from social media to mobile apps and guerilla marketing,” said Delicote.

Investment projects not linked to elections

Mihai Bogza, president of the Foreign Investors’ Council (FIC), said members of the organization expect the presidential elections to be a fair and democratic process that signals the continuation of Romania’s road towards building a strong democracy.

“And I don’t think investment projects will be conditional on the elections, even less on their outcome,” Bogza told BR. The FIC has 117 member companies, whose investment stock in Romania amounts to EUR 35 billion.

“Since investors’ commitment to Romania is long term, and since elections are a normal part of democratic life, such cycles should not affect the economic environment, as they have already been factored in,” said Bogza.

He added, “That said, we are aware that in Romania, as in other countries, the authorities tend to postpone some difficult decisions until after elections, and sometimes make decisions based on the votes they expect such decisions will bring, rather than on mere economic rationale. As long as these decisions don’t have a major negative impact on the business environment, we can live with them.”

Representatives of the Romanian-German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AHK Romania) said they had no information on German companies that have put investment plans on hold until after the November elections.

Lack of a clear action plan in Brussels

The management of foreign policy is one of the key responsibilities of the president in Romania, but candidates seem to have ignored this as regards the European Union and its impact on the country, say pundits.

Magdin of Smartlink Communications said this has good and bad parts.

“Good, because everyone accepts that our future is in the EU; we do not have mainstream eurosceptics. Bad because there are no substantial provisions detailing a vision as regards action in Brussels. In the end, it‘s the president who represents us in Brussels, even though he has to work closely with the government in defining EU policies and positioning,” said Magdin.

Delicote of VIP Imagine commented that subjects related to foreign policy, the EU or accession to the Schengen space are hard for regular Romanians to get their heads around, although these matters will impact their daily lives on the long run.

Ovidiu Posirca

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