Romania among emerging markets most vulnerable to a US-China trade war, analysts find

Anca Alexe 03/06/2019 | 08:31

Romania is one of the countries that are vulnerable to a possible global trade war, according to a Bloomberg analysis of 21 emerging economies, Economica.net reports.

Romania ranked 18th out of the 21 states in terms of their potential for resistance when faced with the effects of the trade war, while the Philippines and Egypt ranked first and second.

Most of the states that ranked high on the list have solid growth perspectives. The Philippines and Egypt got high scores after the asset sell-offs across developing markets led to their assets being relatively undervalued. Mexico, on the other hand, which is under the threat of new tariffs from the Trump administration, ranked as the most vulnerable market due to its high dependence on exports to the US.

Hungary came in sixth in the ranking, Russia was ninth, and Poland eleventh.

The countries included in the analysis are either part of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which had a 1.3 percent decline in May, the largest monthly drop since August 2018, or part of an index developed by Bloomberg to measure the local currency debts of emerging economies.

The impact of the trade war was measured using a weighted average of each country’s exports to the US and China compared to their nominal GDP; China’s score cannot be calculated using this criterion. Safety is measured based on the countries’ current account, country rating and forex reserves.

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